---
title: "INSANE LUCK case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "INSANE LUCK ($2.76) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.08% from 26 items with odds, observed 318.92% over 172 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [INSANE LUCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · INSANE LUCK

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=all)

Price · $2.76 · 4.34 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 88.08% · EV $2.43 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 318.92% · 172 openings, odds method

Variance · 795.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 2,500 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 130 openings · below min

30 days · 172 openings · below min

since tracking started · 172 openings · below min

-0.5% 1128.8% 2258.0%

**Small sample.** 172 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=24h) | 6 | 0.46% ±2257.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=7d) | 130 | 421.80% ±484.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467) | 172 | 318.92% ±421.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/467?window=all) | 172 | 318.92% ±421.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT\_COIN | 17.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,318 5,225 HUNT\_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,622 4,130 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,594 4,086 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,250 3,544 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $526 829 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $257 405 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $236 372 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $236 372 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $234 369 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $233 367 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $164 258 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $164 258 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $163 256 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $162 255 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $161 254 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $135 213 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 99.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 171 | 171.6 | 1.00× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN 547.7x 2026-11-07 06:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=467)

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Sewi #^](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sewi%20%23%5E) $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.76 4.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.76 | 88.08% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% other 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 0.0% contraband 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 0.0% Legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% consumer 99.8% best hit $1,509 (547.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.08 on average: an expected loss of $11.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt