--- title: "mesytes 10% dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "mesytes 10% dream ($17.11) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 20 items with odds, observed 50.34% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [mesytes 10% dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · mesytes 10% dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=all) Price · $17.11 · 26.95 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $14.95 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 50.34% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 21.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 54 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 164.0% 328.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=7d) | 12 | 66.33% ±261.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47) | 16 | 50.34% ±226.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/47?window=all) | 16 | 50.34% ±226.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,326 2,089 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,178 1,855 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $444 699 HUNT\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 1 in 400 | $417 656 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $333 524 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 1 in 200 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower) | 1 in 200 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $171 270 HUNT\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $132 208 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $84.03 132 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $45.83 72.19 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-well-worn) | 20.2% | $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) | 10.0% | $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Counter-Tech sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-tech) | 30.0% | $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=47) [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Counter-Tech sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-tech) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC [Sticker | Counter-Tech sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-tech) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 17:06 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $132 208 HUNT\_COIN 7.70x 2026-11-05 17:06 UTC [Sticker | Counter-Tech sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-tech) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 17:06 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-well-worn) Hidden $17.11 26.95 HUNT\_COIN $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.11 | 87.38% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.4% extraordinary 2.4% classified 1.1% gold 0.1% other 1.0% restricted 2.0% blueLight 20.2% high 10.0% #8847ff 30.0% Rare 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt