---
title: "mesytes 1% OMG case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "mesytes 1% OMG ($10.55) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.35% from 16 items with odds, observed 71.21% over 72 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [mesytes 1% OMG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · mesytes 1% OMG

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=all)

Price · $10.55 · 16.61 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.35% · EV $9.21 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.21% · 72 openings, odds method

Variance · 79.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 278 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 96.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 24 openings · below min

30 days · 72 openings · below min

since tracking started · 72 openings · below min

-0.5% 231.3% 463.0%

**Small sample.** 72 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=7d) | 24 | 106.22% ±355.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48) | 72 | 71.21% ±205.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/48?window=all) | 72 | 71.21% ±205.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,472 5,469 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,747 4,327 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,715 2,702 HUNT\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,361 2,144 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,080 1,701 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $903 1,422 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $750 1,181 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $103 162 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $89.47 141 HUNT\_COIN | 9.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $88.90 140 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 5 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 33.5% | $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 20 | 24.1 | 0.83× |
| [Sticker \| Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) | 32.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 31.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 24 | 22.3 | 1.08× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=48)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $88.90 140 HUNT\_COIN 8.43x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [FAT SANTA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/FAT%20SANTA) $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC

[Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC

[Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC

[Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $10.55 16.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.55 | 87.35% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert knife 0.2% classified 0.1% covert 2.2% #d32ce6 1.0% milspec 33.5% Rare 32.0% consumer 31.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.35 on average: an expected loss of $12.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt