--- title: "mesytes 5% dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "mesytes 5% dream ($14.18) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.34% from 11 items with odds, observed 62.35% over 55 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [mesytes 5% dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · mesytes 5% dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=all) Price · $14.18 · 22.34 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.34% · EV $12.39 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.35% · 55 openings, odds method Variance · 21.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 46 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 49 openings · below min 30 days · 55 openings · below min since tracking started · 55 openings · below min -0.5% 185.3% 371.0% **Small sample.** 55 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=24h) | 6 | 3.28% ±367.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=7d) | 49 | 41.80% ±128.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49) | 55 | 62.35% ±121.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/49?window=all) | 55 | 62.35% ±121.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $972 1,531 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $687 1,083 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $431 678 HUNT\_COIN | 17.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $353 555 HUNT\_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $193 304 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $90.08 142 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $75.70 119 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| Pushing Smokes (Glitter) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pushing-smokes-glitter) | 34.8% | $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) | 60.0% | $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=49) [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Pushing Smokes (Glitter) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pushing-smokes-glitter) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Pushing Smokes (Glitter) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pushing-smokes-glitter) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $14.18 22.34 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.18 | 87.34% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% Covert 2.0% covert 1.6% covert knife 0.5% mil spec 1.0% Mythical 34.8% #4B69FF 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.34 on average: an expected loss of $12.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt