--- title: "Good Lucky 20% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Good Lucky 20% ($12.63) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 6 items with odds, observed 110.43% over 334 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Good Lucky 20%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Good Lucky 20% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=all) Price · $12.63 · 19.9 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $11.04 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 110.43% · 334 openings, odds method Variance · 20.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 110.43% ±48.34 334 openings since tracking started · 110.43% ±48.34 334 openings -0.5% 180.5% 361.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=24h) | 6 | 0.20% ±360.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=7d) | 82 | 92.52% ±97.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490) | 334 | 110.43% ±48.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/490?window=all) | 334 | 110.43% ±48.3 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 334 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $48.6K 76,561 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,001 | $550 866 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $174 273 HUNT\_COIN | 14.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.66× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $61.68 97.14 HUNT\_COIN | 27.9% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 14.0% | $41.28 65.01 HUNT\_COIN | 52.3% | 50 | 46.8 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 80.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 259 | 267.2 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $550 866 HUNT\_COIN 43.54x 2026-11-04 05:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=490) [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $12.63 19.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.63 | 87.40% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.9% other 0.1% restricted 5.0% covert 14.0% high 80.0% best hit $550 (43.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt