--- title: "5% RISKY DREAMS case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% RISKY DREAMS ($1.71) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.57% from 17 items with odds, observed 54.74% over 985 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% RISKY DREAMS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% RISKY DREAMS A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=all) Price · $1.71 · 2.69 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.57% · EV $1.50 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.74% · 985 openings, odds method Variance · 81.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 116 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 137 openings · below min 7 days · 48.37% ±66.81 701 openings 30 days · 54.74% ±56.36 985 openings since tracking started · 54.74% ±56.36 985 openings -0.5% 101.3% 203.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=24h) | 137 | 51.17% ±151.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=7d) | 701 | 48.37% ±66.8 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492) | 985 | 54.74% ±56.4 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/492?window=all) | 985 | 54.74% ±56.4 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 985 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $839 1,321 HUNT\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $338 533 HUNT\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $148 233 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $146 230 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 1,000 | $82.72 130 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo) | 1 in 1,000 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $31.61 49.78 HUNT\_COIN | 10.6% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× | | [Sticker \| fer (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fer-foil) | 1 in 100 | $20.29 31.95 HUNT\_COIN | 13.6% | 24 | 9.8 | 2.44× | | [Sticker \| fer (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fer-foil) | 1 in 100 | $15.77 24.83 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 24 | 9.8 | 2.44× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 50 | $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN | 10.1% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× | | [Sticker \| Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) | 24.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 222 | 236.4 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) | 24.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 242 | 236.4 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) | 24.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 239 | 236.4 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) | 22.6% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 234 | 223.0 | 1.05× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=492) [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [Sticker | Kitted Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kitted-out) Hidden $1.71 2.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.71 | 87.57% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.5% covert knife 0.1% classified 0.1% exotic 2.1% other 50.1% Ancient 0.5% Rare 24.0% high 22.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.57 on average: an expected loss of $12.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt