---
title: "2% EXTREME LOTTERY case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2% EXTREME LOTTERY ($1.64) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.35% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.70% over 1,372 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [2% EXTREME LOTTERY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 2% EXTREME LOTTERY

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=all)

Price · $1.64 · 2.59 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.35% · EV $1.44 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.70% · 1,372 openings, odds method

Variance · 425.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 625 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 30 openings · below min

7 days · 1,138 openings · below min

30 days · 1,372 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1,372 openings · below min

-0.5% 447.5% 895.5%

**Small sample.** 1,372 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=24h) | 30 | 156.64% ±738.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=7d) | 1,138 | 98.46% ±119.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493) | 1,372 | 95.70% ±109.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/493?window=all) | 1,372 | 95.70% ±109.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,372 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN | 15.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $211 332 HUNT\_COIN | 14.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN | 25.9% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [Sticker \| Lucky 13 (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-13-foil) | 1 in 75 | $9.03 14.23 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) | 98.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 1,341 | 1344.6 | 1.00× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $486 766 HUNT\_COIN 295.7x 2026-11-07 13:04 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $486 766 HUNT\_COIN 295.7x 2026-11-07 13:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $211 332 HUNT\_COIN 128.3x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) [EyMingh](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/EyMingh) $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $211 332 HUNT\_COIN 128.3x 2026-11-04 09:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=493)

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[Sticker | Fly High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fly-high) Hidden $1.64 2.59 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.15 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.64 | 87.35% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.5% Exotic 1.3% #4b69ff 98.0% best hit $486 (295.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.35 on average: an expected loss of $12.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt