--- title: "Gambles case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gambles ($37.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.68% from 5 items with odds, observed 174.51% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Gambles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Gambles A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=all) Price · $37.24 · 58.65 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.68% · EV $33.02 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 174.51% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 17.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 212.5% 425.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=7d) | 6 | 88.13% ±336.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50) | 30 | 174.51% ±150.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/50?window=all) | 30 | 174.51% ±150.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 16.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN | 16.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $1,417 2,231 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $193 304 HUNT\_COIN | 52.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 90.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN 41.40x 2026-11-04 08:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=50) [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $193 304 HUNT\_COIN 5.18x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) Hidden $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $37.24 58.65 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $37.24 | 88.68% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% classified 0.3% red 9.0% violet 90.0% best hit $1,542 (41.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.68 on average: an expected loss of $11.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt