--- title: "GUARANTEED 5% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GUARANTEED 5% ($29.28) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 14 items with odds, observed 85.20% over 92 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [GUARANTEED 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · GUARANTEED 5% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=all) Price · $29.28 · 46.11 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $25.58 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.20% · 92 openings, odds method Variance · 68.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 108 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 92 openings · below min since tracking started · 92 openings · below min -0.5% 186.3% 373.0% **Small sample.** 92 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=7d) | 52 | 147.76% ±224.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501) | 92 | 85.20% ±169.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/501?window=all) | 92 | 85.20% ±169.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $12.8K 20,125 HUNT\_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,597 4,091 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT\_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $550 866 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $289 455 HUNT\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $255 402 HUNT\_COIN | 16.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $226 357 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.74× | | [Sticker \| Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) | 90.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 79 | 82.8 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN 23.19x 2026-11-06 20:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN 23.19x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=501) [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $19.91 31.36 HUNT\_COIN 0.68x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) Hidden $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $29.28 46.11 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.28 | 87.38% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.2% covert knife 0.7% gold 0.3% other 0.3% Covert 0.5% blue 5.0% #4b69ff 90.0% best hit $679 (23.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt