--- title: "Macieja5% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Macieja5% ($5.12) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.28% from 5 items with odds, observed 116.79% over 231 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Macieja5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Macieja5% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=all) Price · $5.12 · 8.07 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.28% · EV $4.52 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.79% · 231 openings, odds method Variance · 26.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 225 openings · below min 30 days · 231 openings · below min since tracking started · 231 openings · below min 50.5% 215.0% 379.5% **Small sample.** 231 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=24h) | 47 | 233.43% ±145.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=7d) | 225 | 119.90% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506) | 231 | 116.79% ±65.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/506?window=all) | 231 | 116.79% ±65.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $278 437 HUNT\_COIN | 30.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $156 245 HUNT\_COIN | 34.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $56.67 89.26 HUNT\_COIN | 18.8% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT\_COIN | 15.8% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 215 | 219.4 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $278 437 HUNT\_COIN 54.18x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $278 437 HUNT\_COIN 54.18x 2026-11-05 11:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=506) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $56.67 89.26 HUNT\_COIN 11.06x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $5.12 8.07 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.12 | 88.28% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% Ancient 1.0% red 1.5% restricted 2.0% other 95.0% best hit $278 (54.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.28 on average: an expected loss of $11.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt