---
title: "5% TO WILD LOTUS case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "5% TO WILD LOTUS ($5.23) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.28% from 19 items with odds, observed 94.58% over 739 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% TO WILD LOTUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% TO WILD LOTUS

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=all)

Price · $5.23 · 8.24 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.28% · EV $4.57 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.58% · 739 openings, odds method

Variance · 183.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 131 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 469 openings · below min

30 days · 94.58% ±97.63 739 openings

since tracking started · 94.58% ±97.63 739 openings

-0.5% 543.5% 1087.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=24h) | 6 | 3.40% ±1083.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=7d) | 469 | 114.19% ±122.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508) | 739 | 94.58% ±97.6 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/508?window=all) | 739 | 94.58% ±97.6 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 739 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $17.4K 27,343 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,540 8,725 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,861 7,656 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,993 3,139 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $799 1,258 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic) | 1 in 5,000 | $657 1,035 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Zeus (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold) | 1 in 1,000 | $401 631 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $332 523 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 200 | $82.72 130 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo) | 1 in 200 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $37.43 58.96 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.49× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Stupid Banana (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-stupid-banana-foil) | 1 in 50 | $23.26 36.64 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn FBI sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-fbi) | 31.0% | $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 221 | 229.1 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) | 31.0% | $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 201 | 229.1 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Pixel Avenger sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pixel-avenger) | 32.2% | $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 271 | 238.2 | 1.14× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Zeus (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $401 631 HUNT\_COIN 76.63x 2026-11-07 13:22 UTC

[Sticker | Zeus (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $401 631 HUNT\_COIN 76.63x 2026-11-04 05:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $332 523 HUNT\_COIN 63.43x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $332 523 HUNT\_COIN 63.43x 2026-11-05 14:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=508)

[Sticker | Pixel Avenger sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pixel-avenger) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Poorly Drawn FBI sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-fbi) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Separate Pixels sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-separate-pixels) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.12 0.19 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Poorly Drawn FBI sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-fbi) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $37.43 58.96 HUNT\_COIN 7.16x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Pixel Avenger sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pixel-avenger) Hidden $5.23 8.24 HUNT\_COIN $0.10 0.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.23 | 87.28% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% other 0.6% Covert 0.0% covert 1.6% extraordinary 0.0% exotic 2.5% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% Rare 63.2% high 31.0% best hit $401 (76.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.28 on average: an expected loss of $12.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt