--- title: "KNIFE OR CASHBACK case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "KNIFE OR CASHBACK ($3.81) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.34% from 11 items with odds, observed 245.78% over 17 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [KNIFE OR CASHBACK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · KNIFE OR CASHBACK A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=all) Price · $3.81 · 6 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.34% · EV $3.33 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 245.78% · 17 openings, odds method Variance · 64.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 69 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 17 openings · below min 30 days · 17 openings · below min since tracking started · 17 openings · below min -0.5% 314.0% 628.5% **Small sample.** 17 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=7d) | 17 | 245.78% ±382.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509) | 17 | 245.78% ±382.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/509?window=all) | 17 | 245.78% ±382.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,368 2,154 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $372 585 HUNT\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $368 580 HUNT\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN | 21.5% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) | 40.0% | $2.64 4.16 HUNT\_COIN | 31.8% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 58.6% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=509) [Sticker | Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $2.64 4.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-09 13:11 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $2.64 4.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-09 13:11 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $2.64 4.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-09 13:11 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN 18.80x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $3.81 6 HUNT\_COIN $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN 18.80x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.81 | 87.34% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 1.0% legendary 0.0% covert 0.3% Covert 0.1% remarkable 40.0% consumer 58.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.34 on average: an expected loss of $12.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt