---
title: "5% Lottery Terminal Battle on Hunt.gg: odds & RTP"
description: "5% Lottery Terminal Battle ($23.95) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 17 items with odds, observed 29.45% over 458 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Lottery Terminal Battle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Lottery Terminal Battle

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=all)

Price · $23.95 · 37.72 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $20.93 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 29.45% · 458 openings, odds method

Variance · 52.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 79 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 212 openings · below min

30 days · 29.45% ±66.38 458 openings

since tracking started · 29.45% ±66.38 458 openings

-0.5% 291.8% 584.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=24h) | 6 | 3.26% ±579.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=7d) | 212 | 32.33% ±97.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511) | 458 | 29.45% ±66.4 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/511?window=all) | 458 | 29.45% ±66.4 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo) | 1 in 6,667 | $6,667 10,500 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $5,693 8,966 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $5,278 8,312 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 1 in 6,667 | $4,861 7,656 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan) | 1 in 6,667 | $3,472 5,469 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,332 3,672 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,333 2,100 HUNT\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $770 1,213 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $526 829 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $332 523 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $225 354 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $193 304 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $161 254 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $137 216 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $96.86 153 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [Sticker \| Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) | 95.0% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 441 | 435.1 | 1.01× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=511)

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.95 37.72 HUNT\_COIN $193 304 HUNT\_COIN 8.06x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $23.95 | 87.38% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.0% covert 1.4% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.5% covert knife 0.5% Legendary 0.8% classified 1.5% mil spec 0.3% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt