--- title: "mesytes 1% boom case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "mesytes 1% boom ($4.40) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 13 items with odds, observed 144.28% over 405 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [mesytes 1% boom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · mesytes 1% boom A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=all) Price · $4.40 · 6.93 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $3.85 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 144.28% · 405 openings, odds method Variance · 90.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105 openings · below min 7 days · 405 openings · below min 30 days · 405 openings · below min since tracking started · 405 openings · below min 36.0% 218.8% 401.5% **Small sample.** 405 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=24h) | 105 | 218.68% ±182.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=7d) | 405 | 144.28% ±92.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52) | 405 | 144.28% ±92.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/52?window=all) | 405 | 144.28% ±92.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 405 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $750 1,181 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $736 1,159 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports) | 1 in 2,000 | $694 1,094 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $368 580 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $326 514 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $313 492 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $280 441 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $273 430 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $263 414 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $226 357 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 399 | 400.9 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $736 1,159 HUNT\_COIN 167.3x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $736 1,159 HUNT\_COIN 167.3x 2026-11-06 03:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $368 580 HUNT\_COIN 83.65x 2026-11-09 16:28 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $273 430 HUNT\_COIN 62.03x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $226 357 HUNT\_COIN 51.46x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $226 357 HUNT\_COIN 51.46x 2026-11-07 03:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=52) [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) [Trevor Lett](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Trevor%20Lett) $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $4.40 6.93 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.40 | 87.39% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% restricted 0.1% covert 0.5% other 99.0% rare 0.1% classified 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% best hit $736 (167.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt