--- title: "Wager Free 20% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wager Free 20% ($2.30) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.51% from 6 items with odds, observed 102.48% over 54 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Wager Free 20%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Wager Free 20% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=all) Price · $2.30 · 3.62 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.51% · EV $2.03 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.48% · 54 openings, odds method Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 17 openings · below min 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min -0.5% 124.8% 250.0% **Small sample.** 54 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=24h) | 17 | 111.52% ±137.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=7d) | 48 | 114.27% ±82.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522) | 54 | 102.48% ±77.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/522?window=all) | 54 | 102.48% ±77.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 27.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $19.03 29.98 HUNT\_COIN | 37.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× | | [Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo) | 1 in 20 | $8.53 13.44 HUNT\_COIN | 21.0% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) | 10.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN | 4.6% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) | 50.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=522) [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.75x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $19.03 29.98 HUNT\_COIN 8.28x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC [Sticker | hades (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-glitter) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.75x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.30 3.62 HUNT\_COIN $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.30 | 88.51% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% #8847FF 4.0% other 65.0% milspec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.51 on average: an expected loss of $11.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt