--- title: "Ascention case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ascention ($163.36) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 11 items with odds, observed 45.68% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Ascention](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Ascention A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=all) Price · $163.36 · 257 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $144.85 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.68% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min -0.5% 93.5% 187.5% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=7d) | 24 | 58.13% ±128.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526) | 48 | 45.68% ±90.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/526?window=all) | 48 | 45.68% ±90.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $14.2K 22,288 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $2,546 4,010 HUNT\_COIN | 15.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $610 960 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [Sticker \| Zeus (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold) | 1 in 20 | $401 631 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 14.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $146 230 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 10.0% | $120 189 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $47.23 74.38 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 25.0% | $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 17 | 12.0 | 1.42× | | [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.85 1.34 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.17× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 3.73x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=526) [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $146 230 HUNT\_COIN 0.89x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $0.85 1.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Sticker | Zeus (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $401 631 HUNT\_COIN 2.45x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $47.23 74.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $0.85 1.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $0.85 1.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $0.85 1.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 257 HUNT\_COIN $47.23 74.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $163 | 88.67% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.1% covert knife 0.9% classified 3.0% other 5.0% Covert 7.5% extraordinary 7.5% mil spec 10.0% Classified 15.0% Legendary 25.0% industrial 25.0% best hit $610 (3.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt