--- title: "Make or break case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Make or break ($453.93) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 13 items with odds, observed 105.16% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Make or break](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Make or break A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=all) Price · $453.93 · 715 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $402.50 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.16% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 144.0% 288.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=7d) | 6 | 105.16% ±182.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527) | 6 | 105.16% ±182.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/527?window=all) | 6 | 105.16% ±182.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.4K 27,343 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2,840 4,473 HUNT\_COIN | 14.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2,361 3,718 HUNT\_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,625 2,559 HUNT\_COIN | 16.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 19.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1,055 1,662 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $45.83 72.19 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 15.0% | $17.92 28.23 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $14.50 22.84 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | | [Sticker \| Taste Bud sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-bud) | 20.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $2,840 4,473 HUNT\_COIN 6.26x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=527) [Sticker | Taste Bud sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-bud) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $2,840 4,473 HUNT\_COIN 6.26x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $454 715 HUNT\_COIN $17.92 28.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $454 | 88.67% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 5.1% covert 34.4% contraband 0.5% restricted 5.0% red 15.0% blue 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit $2,840 (6.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt