--- title: "Crimson case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Crimson ($107.52) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 12 items with odds, observed 137.25% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Crimson](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Crimson A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=all) Price · $107.52 · 169 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $95.34 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 137.25% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 131.5% 263.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=24h) | 6 | 26.12% ±177.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=7d) | 12 | 137.25% ±125.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530) | 12 | 137.25% ±125.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/530?window=all) | 12 | 137.25% ±125.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $1,976 3,112 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,596 2,513 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $514 809 HUNT\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $387 610 HUNT\_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $362 571 HUNT\_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $161 254 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 15.0% | $16.04 25.27 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 25.0% | $1.65 2.6 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1,596 2,513 HUNT\_COIN 14.84x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=530) [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $161 254 HUNT\_COIN 1.50x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.65 2.6 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.65 2.6 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.65 2.6 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1,596 2,513 HUNT\_COIN 14.84x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 169 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $108 | 88.67% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 4.4% covert knife 3.5% classified 12.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 45.0% #8847ff 25.0% best hit $1,596 (14.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt