--- title: "No Guts case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "No Guts ($53.96) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 12 items with odds, observed 33.00% over 41 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [No Guts](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · No Guts A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=all) Price · $53.96 · 84.99 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $47.85 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 33.00% · 41 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 37 openings · below min 30 days · 41 openings · below min since tracking started · 41 openings · below min -0.5% 73.0% 146.5% **Small sample.** 41 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=24h) | 8 | 45.14% ±100.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=7d) | 37 | 36.49% ±46.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531) | 41 | 33.00% ±44.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/531?window=all) | 41 | 33.00% ±44.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $260 410 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $214 336 HUNT\_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $183 287 HUNT\_COIN | 19.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $140 221 HUNT\_COIN | 14.6% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $114 179 HUNT\_COIN | 11.9% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.95× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $77.78 123 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 15.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 11 | 6.1 | 1.79× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.46× | | [Sticker \| Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) | 20.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=531) [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $114 179 HUNT\_COIN 2.11x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $77.78 123 HUNT\_COIN 1.44x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 20:35 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [dwiauhdas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/dwiauhdas) $53.96 84.99 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 20:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $53.96 | 88.67% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 23.0% covert knife 7.0% other 15.0% restricted 15.0% #5e98d9 20.0% High Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt