--- title: "Fisherman case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fisherman ($23.30) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.66% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.31% over 1,017 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Fisherman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Fisherman A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=all) Price · $23.30 · 36.69 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.66% · EV $20.65 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.31% · 1,017 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.14% ±32.15 328 openings 7 days · 90.26% ±18.72 968 openings 30 days · 89.31% ±18.26 1,017 openings since tracking started · 89.31% ±18.26 1,017 openings 62.5% 95.3% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=24h) | 328 | 95.14% ±32.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=7d) | 968 | 90.26% ±18.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532) | 1,017 | 89.31% ±18.3 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/532?window=all) | 1,017 | 89.31% ±18.3 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,017 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,229 1,936 HUNT\_COIN | 11.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $422 664 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.29× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $211 332 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $150 236 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 7 | 10.2 | 0.69× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $137 216 HUNT\_COIN | 13.3% | 26 | 20.3 | 1.28× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $96.51 152 HUNT\_COIN | 14.0% | 20 | 30.5 | 0.66× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN | 27.6% | 66 | 61.0 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 69 | 71.2 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 15.0% | $5.63 8.87 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 148 | 152.5 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.56 8.76 HUNT\_COIN | 4.0% | 159 | 152.5 | 1.04× | | [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.48 3.91 HUNT\_COIN | 3.0% | 267 | 254.3 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 242 | 254.3 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $1,229 1,936 HUNT\_COIN 52.76x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=532) [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $2.48 3.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $2.48 3.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $5.56 8.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.24x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $5.56 8.76 HUNT\_COIN 0.24x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $96.51 152 HUNT\_COIN 4.14x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-dark-water-field-tested) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $2.48 3.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC [AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $96.51 152 HUNT\_COIN 4.14x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $23.30 36.69 HUNT\_COIN $2.48 3.91 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $23.30 | 88.66% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% classified 1.0% covert knife 2.0% restricted 6.0% pink 7.0% #d32ee6 15.0% milspec 15.0% mil spec 25.0% Mil Spec 25.0% best hit $1,229 (52.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.66 on average: an expected loss of $11.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt