--- title: "KNIFE5% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "KNIFE5% ($7.89) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.33% from 4 items with odds, observed 71.57% over 129 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [KNIFE5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · KNIFE5% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=all) Price · $7.89 · 12.43 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.33% · EV $6.89 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.57% · 129 openings, odds method Variance · 16.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 105 openings · below min 30 days · 129 openings · below min since tracking started · 129 openings · below min -0.5% 203.5% 407.5% **Small sample.** 129 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=24h) | 4 | 10.30% ±396.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=7d) | 105 | 85.58% ±77.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535) | 129 | 71.57% ±69.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/535?window=all) | 129 | 71.57% ±69.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $329 518 HUNT\_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 34.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 30.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 95.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 125 | 122.5 | 1.02× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=535) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $7.89 12.43 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 18:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.89 | 87.33% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.5% covert 4.5% High Grade 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.33 on average: an expected loss of $12.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt