--- title: "High Risk High Reward case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "High Risk High Reward ($65.70) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.53% over 890 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [High Risk High Reward](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · High Risk High Reward A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=all) Price · $65.70 · 103 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $58.26 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.53% · 890 openings, odds method Variance · 29.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 81.99% ±36.99 835 openings 30 days · 82.53% ±35.83 890 openings since tracking started · 82.53% ±35.83 890 openings -0.5% 66.5% 133.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=24h) | 76 | 10.37% ±122.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=7d) | 835 | 81.99% ±37.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542) | 890 | 82.53% ±35.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/542?window=all) | 890 | 82.53% ±35.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 890 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $4,035 6,354 HUNT\_COIN | 17.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN | 23.8% | 11 | 4.5 | 2.47× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN | 28.4% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT\_COIN | 21.5% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 44 | 44.5 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 12.5% | $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 119 | 111.3 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 201 | 222.5 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 232 | 222.5 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-re-built-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 277 | 267.0 | 1.04× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $4,035 6,354 HUNT\_COIN 61.41x 2026-11-08 19:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $4,035 6,354 HUNT\_COIN 61.41x 2026-11-07 18:05 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-10 10:30 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-09 16:40 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-08 21:12 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-08 21:03 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-08 19:51 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-08 19:47 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-07 18:05 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN 42.28x 2026-11-07 18:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=542) [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-re-built-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-re-built-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:17 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-re-built-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-re-built-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.13 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $65.70 103 HUNT\_COIN $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.70 | 88.67% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.3% covert 0.5% legendary 0.8% classified 1.0% restricted 5.0% blue 12.5% Mil Spec 25.0% light blue 25.0% milspec 30.0% best hit $4,035 (61.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt