--- title: "Dirt Poor case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dirt Poor ($2.71) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.74% from 8 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Dirt Poor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Dirt Poor A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=all) Price · $2.71 · 4.27 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.74% · EV $2.41 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/558?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.82 9.17 HUNT\_COIN | 36.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.75 5.91 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.77 4.37 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.22 3.5 HUNT\_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=558) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.71 | 88.74% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% classified 2.5% mil spec 15.0% milspec 10.0% violet 45.0% consumer 25.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.74 on average: an expected loss of $11.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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