--- title: "Lost it all case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lost it all ($56.53) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 13 items with odds, observed 59.59% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Lost it all](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Lost it all A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=all) Price · $56.53 · 89.04 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $50.13 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.59% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 20.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min -0.5% 179.5% 359.5% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=7d) | 6 | 0.44% ±358.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563) | 36 | 59.59% ±146.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/563?window=all) | 36 | 59.59% ±146.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT\_COIN | 40.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN | 30.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 13.5% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $85.97 135 HUNT\_COIN | 10.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 10.0% | $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN | 4.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.45 2.29 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× | | [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.23 1.93 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-faulty-wiring-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 9 | 3.6 | 2.50× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=563) [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Souvenir Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $1.23 1.93 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-minimal-wear) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $56.53 89.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $56.53 | 88.67% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% classified 7.0% rare 2.0% restricted 10.0% Industrial Grade 20.0% other 20.0% Consumer Grade 10.0% Common 10.0% consumer 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt