--- title: "Christmas Miracles case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Miracles ($12.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 8 items with odds, observed 14.21% over 53 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Christmas Miracles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Christmas Miracles A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=all) Price · $12.83 · 20.2 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $11.21 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 14.21% · 53 openings, odds method Variance · 32.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 53 openings · below min 30 days · 53 openings · below min since tracking started · 53 openings · below min -0.5% 84.3% 169.0% **Small sample.** 53 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=7d) | 53 | 14.21% ±154.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580) | 53 | 14.21% ±154.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/580?window=all) | 53 | 14.21% ±154.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $979 1,542 HUNT\_COIN | 43.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 19.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $140 221 HUNT\_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $16.53 26.04 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $11.35 17.88 HUNT\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) | 40.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 25 | 21.2 | 1.18× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere) | 50.0% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=580) [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) [XegaX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/XegaX) $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere) [XegaX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/XegaX) $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-08 06:58 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.83 20.2 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.83 | 87.40% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% classified 6.0% other 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt