--- title: "10% Insane Knifes case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Insane Knifes ($28.47) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 17 items with odds, observed 136.88% over 196 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Insane Knifes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Insane Knifes A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=all) Price · $28.47 · 44.84 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $24.88 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 136.88% · 196 openings, odds method Variance · 27.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 196 openings · below min since tracking started · 196 openings · below min 47.0% 169.3% 291.5% **Small sample.** 196 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=7d) | 72 | 169.28% ±121.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581) | 196 | 136.88% ±73.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/581?window=all) | 196 | 136.88% ±73.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,415 10,103 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $2,736 4,309 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $971 1,529 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $961 1,514 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 14.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $546 860 HUNT\_COIN | 11.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $243 383 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.04× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $170 267 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $137 216 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $89.58 141 HUNT\_COIN | 3.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.53× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 90.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 169 | 176.4 | 0.96× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $2,736 4,309 HUNT\_COIN 96.10x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $961 1,514 HUNT\_COIN 33.75x 2026-11-04 05:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN 24.88x 2026-11-04 05:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=581) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $2,736 4,309 HUNT\_COIN 96.10x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $28.47 44.84 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.47 | 87.39% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 0.0% covert 4.7% gold 0.2% covert knife 3.1% #ffd700 1.0% Immortal 1.0% High Grade 90.0% best hit $2,736 (96.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt