--- title: "5% flip stn242 case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% flip stn242 ($18.67) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 9 items with odds, observed 207.86% over 412 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% flip stn242](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% flip stn242 A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=all) Price · $18.67 · 29.4 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $16.31 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 207.86% · 412 openings, odds method Variance · 68.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 217 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 154 openings · below min 30 days · 412 openings · below min since tracking started · 412 openings · below min -0.5% 217.8% 436.0% **Small sample.** 412 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=24h) | 14 | 2.29% ±433.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=7d) | 154 | 178.51% ±130.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586) | 412 | 207.86% ±79.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/586?window=all) | 412 | 207.86% ±79.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 412 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,667 10,500 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2,250 3,544 HUNT\_COIN | 27.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN | 23.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $458 722 HUNT\_COIN | 14.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $172 271 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $26.86 42.31 HUNT\_COIN | 4.7% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× | | [Sticker \| In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) | 50.0% | $0.46 0.73 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 210 | 206.0 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) | 45.0% | $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 179 | 185.4 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $6,667 10,500 HUNT\_COIN 357.1x 2026-11-04 08:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $2,250 3,544 HUNT\_COIN 120.5x 2026-11-05 13:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $2,250 3,544 HUNT\_COIN 120.5x 2026-11-03 05:39 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN 82.66x 2026-11-10 10:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=586) [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [Sticker | In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) [Leva\_alt2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Leva_alt2) $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.46 0.73 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [Sticker | In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.46 0.73 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC [Sticker | In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.46 0.73 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) [Leva\_alt2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Leva_alt2) $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $18.67 29.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.67 | 87.37% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.0% Covert 0.2% covert 0.3% gold 1.2% extraordinary 0.5% rare 2.8% exotic 50.0% #4B69FF 45.0% best hit $6,667 (357.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt