--- title: "5% low stn242 case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% low stn242 ($3.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.42% from 6 items with odds, observed 45.38% over 207 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% low stn242](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% low stn242 A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=all) Price · $3.83 · 6.04 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.42% · EV $3.35 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.38% · 207 openings, odds method Variance · 21.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 117 openings · below min 30 days · 45.38% ±63.80 207 openings since tracking started · 45.38% ±63.80 207 openings -0.5% 114.0% 228.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=24h) | 39 | 80.73% ±147.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=7d) | 117 | 71.29% ±84.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590) | 207 | 45.38% ±63.8 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/590?window=all) | 207 | 45.38% ±63.8 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 207 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $164 258 HUNT\_COIN | 24.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $49.03 77.23 HUNT\_COIN | 29.3% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT\_COIN | 20.7% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) | 50.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 96 | 103.5 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) | 45.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 105 | 93.2 | 1.13× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=590) [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $49.03 77.23 HUNT\_COIN 12.79x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) Hidden $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Sticker | Monster sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monster) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $3.83 6.04 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.83 | 87.42% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 0.5% covert 0.5% classified 2.0% milspec 2.0% High Grade 50.0% Rare 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.42 on average: an expected loss of $12.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt