--- title: "CS Hunt 4% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CS Hunt 4% ($28.10) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.90% from 10 items with odds, observed 189.09% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [CS Hunt 4%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · CS Hunt 4% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=all) Price · $28.10 · 44.26 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.90% · EV $24.70 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 189.09% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 22.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 32.5% 189.0% 345.5% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=7d) | 36 | 189.09% ±156.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611) | 36 | 189.09% ±156.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/611?window=all) | 36 | 189.09% ±156.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT\_COIN | 22.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 19.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $777 1,224 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $625 984 HUNT\_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 1 in 200 | $463 729 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $392 618 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $313 492 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $138 217 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $43.83 69.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) | 96.0% | $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 33 | 34.6 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN 34.04x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $625 984 HUNT\_COIN 22.24x 2026-11-07 08:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=611) [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $313 492 HUNT\_COIN 11.12x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $28.10 44.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.57 0.9 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.10 | 87.90% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% epic 0.6% #EB4B4B 0.4% covert knife 0.3% restricted 0.2% high 96.0% best hit $957 (34.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.90 on average: an expected loss of $12.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt