--- title: "40 Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "40 Dream ($1.73) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.54% from 4 items with odds, observed 99.40% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [40 Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 40 Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=all) Price · $1.73 · 2.73 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.54% · EV $1.52 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.40% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 30 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 63.5% 96.3% 129.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=7d) | 30 | 95.95% ±31.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652) | 36 | 99.40% ±28.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/652?window=all) | 36 | 99.40% ±28.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $6.53 10.29 HUNT\_COIN | 17.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.28 8.32 HUNT\_COIN | 20.9% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.31× | | [Sticker \| Kimberly sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kimberly) | 30.0% | $1.86 2.93 HUNT\_COIN | 36.8% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.20× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 60.0% | $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN | 25.1% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=652) [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) [Sewi #^](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sewi%20%23%5E) $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [Sticker | Kimberly sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kimberly) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $1.86 2.93 HUNT\_COIN 1.07x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $0.63 1 HUNT\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [Sticker | Kimberly sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kimberly) Hidden $1.73 2.73 HUNT\_COIN $1.86 2.93 HUNT\_COIN 1.07x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.73 | 87.54% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 4.0% restricted 6.0% Rare 30.0% violet 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.54 on average: an expected loss of $12.46 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt