--- title: "Lucky 25 case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lucky 25 ($2.16) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.57% from 6 items with odds, observed 89.29% over 99 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Lucky 25](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Lucky 25 A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=all) Price · $2.16 · 3.4 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.57% · EV $1.89 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.29% · 99 openings, odds method Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 99 openings · below min since tracking started · 99 openings · below min 37.0% 93.0% 149.0% **Small sample.** 99 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=7d) | 93 | 95.01% ±53.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654) | 99 | 89.29% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/654?window=all) | 99 | 89.29% ±51.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 99 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $29.14 45.9 HUNT\_COIN | 30.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.43 43.21 HUNT\_COIN | 29.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) | 1 in 20 | $6.43 10.12 HUNT\_COIN | 17.0% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.68 5.8 HUNT\_COIN | 13.6% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 11 | 8.9 | 1.23× | | [Sticker \| NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) | 75.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 73 | 74.3 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=654) [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.88x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [Polapi SKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Polapi%20SKINS%20skins.army) $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $3.68 5.8 HUNT\_COIN 1.71x 2026-11-10 10:49 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $6.43 10.12 HUNT\_COIN 2.98x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | NAF (Gold) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-naf-gold) Hidden $2.16 3.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.16 | 87.57% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.0% violet 2.0% remarkable 5.0% #4b69ff 7.0% blue 9.0% other 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.57 on average: an expected loss of $12.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt