--- title: "20% Hot Stuff case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% Hot Stuff ($10.03) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.24% from 7 items with odds, observed 100.14% over 161 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% Hot Stuff](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% Hot Stuff A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=all) Price · $10.03 · 15.79 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.24% · EV $8.85 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.14% · 161 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 100.14% ±44.23 161 openings 30 days · 100.14% ±44.23 161 openings since tracking started · 100.14% ±44.23 161 openings 55.5% 100.3% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=7d) | 161 | 100.14% ±44.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656) | 161 | 100.14% ±44.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/656?window=all) | 161 | 100.14% ±44.2 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $693 1,091 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 23.8% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.29× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN | 16.2% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT\_COIN | 19.6% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.37× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.29 38.26 HUNT\_COIN | 27.5% | 14 | 16.1 | 0.87× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 31 | 32.2 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) | 60.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 97 | 96.6 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=656) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $111 175 HUNT\_COIN 11.07x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $1.89 2.98 HUNT\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 07:47 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $111 175 HUNT\_COIN 11.07x 2026-11-08 15:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $34.71 54.67 HUNT\_COIN 3.46x 2026-11-08 15:40 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 15:40 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $10.03 15.79 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 15:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.03 | 88.24% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.1% classified 1.9% covert 13.0% milspec 5.0% blue 20.0% #4b69ff 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.24 on average: an expected loss of $11.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt