--- title: "5% Red Wet Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Red Wet Dream ($7.18) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 9 items with odds, observed 97.78% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Red Wet Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Red Wet Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=all) Price · $7.18 · 11.31 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $6.28 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.78% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 40.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 74 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min -0.5% 362.8% 726.0% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=24h) | 9 | 307.79% ±417.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=7d) | 74 | 97.78% ±145.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657) | 74 | 97.78% ±145.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/657?window=all) | 74 | 97.78% ±145.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $255 402 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $193 304 HUNT\_COIN | 15.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.99 4.71 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× | | [Sticker \| Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) | 90.0% | $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 63 | 66.6 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=657) [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) [Sixpaths](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sixpaths) $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $193 304 HUNT\_COIN 26.91x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) [Sixpaths](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sixpaths) $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.18 11.31 HUNT\_COIN $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN 11.31x 2026-11-09 19:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.18 | 87.39% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% covert 0.4% covert knife 0.1% mil spec 0.5% restricted 1.5% milspec 2.5% Rare 5.0% exotic 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt