--- title: "3% HUGE RED case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "3% HUGE RED ($22.32) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 13 items with odds, observed 70.98% over 285 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [3% HUGE RED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 3% HUGE RED A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=all) Price · $22.32 · 35.16 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $19.51 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.98% · 285 openings, odds method Variance · 160.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 81 openings · below min 30 days · 285 openings · below min since tracking started · 285 openings · below min -0.5% 506.8% 1014.0% **Small sample.** 285 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=24h) | 6 | 0.06% ±1013.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=7d) | 81 | 21.47% ±275.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673) | 285 | 70.98% ±147.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/673?window=all) | 285 | 70.98% ±147.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 285 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo) | 1 in 33,333 | $40.1K 63,193 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $6,415 10,103 HUNT\_COIN | 15.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 5.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $857 1,351 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $601 947 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $409 645 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $387 610 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $332 523 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $255 402 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) | 97.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 276 | 276.4 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN 47.07x 2026-11-04 08:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=673) [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Retro Zeus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-retro-zeus) Hidden $22.32 35.16 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.32 | 87.38% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.0% knifes 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.6% covert knife 1.3% Rare 97.0% best hit $1,051 (47.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt