--- title: "Fade Hunt case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fade Hunt ($6.62) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.33% from 10 items with odds, observed 84.45% over 66 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Fade Hunt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Fade Hunt A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=all) Price · $6.62 · 10.42 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.33% · EV $5.78 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.45% · 66 openings, odds method Variance · 83.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 66 openings · below min 30 days · 66 openings · below min since tracking started · 66 openings · below min -0.5% 152.5% 305.5% **Small sample.** 66 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=7d) | 66 | 84.45% ±220.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674) | 66 | 84.45% ±220.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/674?window=all) | 66 | 84.45% ±220.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,471 5,466 HUNT\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,368 2,154 HUNT\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $625 984 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $382 601 HUNT\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $197 310 HUNT\_COIN | 34.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $97.09 153 HUNT\_COIN | 16.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 97.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 64 | 64.3 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=674) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) [Dural](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Dural) $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $6.62 10.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.62 | 87.33% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.4% legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% other 97.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.33 on average: an expected loss of $12.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt