--- title: "4% Potential case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "4% Potential ($11.84) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.36% from 10 items with odds, observed 464.19% over 15 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [4% Potential](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 4% Potential A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=all) Price · $11.84 · 18.65 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.36% · EV $10.34 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 464.19% · 15 openings, odds method Variance · 31.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 15 openings · below min 30 days · 15 openings · below min since tracking started · 15 openings · below min 86.5% 417.0% 747.5% **Small sample.** 15 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=7d) | 15 | 464.19% ±282.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685) | 15 | 464.19% ±282.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/685?window=all) | 15 | 464.19% ±282.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,194 1,881 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $857 1,351 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 14.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $387 610 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $170 267 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $133 210 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $81.25 128 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) | 96.0% | $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN 57.24x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=685) [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN 57.24x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 10:06 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $11.84 18.65 HUNT\_COIN $1.03 1.63 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.84 | 87.36% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.7% contraband 0.1% covert 0.8% mil spec 1.0% restricted 1.5% #d32ce6 96.0% best hit $678 (57.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.36 on average: an expected loss of $12.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt