--- title: "Rich Macho case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rich Macho ($7.15) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 14 items with odds, observed 165.21% over 456 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Rich Macho](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Rich Macho A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=all) Price · $7.15 · 11.26 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $6.25 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 165.21% · 456 openings, odds method Variance · 150.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 210 openings · below min 30 days · 456 openings · below min since tracking started · 456 openings · below min -0.5% 491.5% 983.5% **Small sample.** 456 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=24h) | 6 | 0.89% ±981.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=7d) | 210 | 107.71% ±166.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688) | 456 | 165.21% ±112.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/688?window=all) | 456 | 165.21% ±112.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 456 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,389 10,062 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $4,035 6,354 HUNT\_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,594 4,086 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,069 1,684 HUNT\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $458 722 HUNT\_COIN | 14.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $367 577 HUNT\_COIN | 11.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $264 416 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $110 173 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $85.97 135 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $62.22 98 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 7 | 2.3 | 3.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 97.5% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 438 | 444.6 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $2,594 4,086 HUNT\_COIN 362.9x 2026-11-04 08:27 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $458 722 HUNT\_COIN 64.09x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $458 722 HUNT\_COIN 64.09x 2026-11-06 18:26 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $458 722 HUNT\_COIN 64.09x 2026-11-04 04:05 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $367 577 HUNT\_COIN 51.28x 2026-11-04 08:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=688) [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.15 11.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.15 | 87.38% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% covert 0.6% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.9% classified 0.5% Covert 0.5% mil spec 97.5% best hit $2,594 (362.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt