--- title: "FireToTheRain case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FireToTheRain ($32.81) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 4 items with odds, observed 237.55% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [FireToTheRain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · FireToTheRain A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=all) Price · $32.81 · 51.68 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $28.67 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 237.55% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 28.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 62.5% 488.0% 913.5% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=7d) | 12 | 610.51% ±302.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696) | 36 | 237.55% ±174.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/696?window=all) | 36 | 237.55% ±174.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN | 38.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $736 1,159 HUNT\_COIN | 25.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 33.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [Sticker \| Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) | 93.5% | $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 32 | 33.7 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN 67.15x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=696) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN 67.15x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $194 306 HUNT\_COIN 5.92x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) [Alfred](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Alfred) $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:00 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC [Sticker | Friendly Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-friendly-fire) Hidden $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN $0.62 0.97 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.81 | 87.37% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% restricted 1.0% mil spec 5.0% high 93.5% best hit $2,203 (67.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt