--- title: "Best Rifle Box case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Best Rifle Box ($2.04) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 6 items with odds, observed 79.39% over 125 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Best Rifle Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Best Rifle Box A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=all) Price · $2.04 · 3.22 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $1.82 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.39% · 125 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 23 openings · below min 30 days · 79.39% ±45.31 125 openings since tracking started · 79.39% ±45.31 125 openings -0.5% 85.3% 171.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=7d) | 23 | 64.57% ±105.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698) | 125 | 79.39% ±45.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/698?window=all) | 125 | 79.39% ±45.3 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $60.34 95.04 HUNT\_COIN | 16.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.51 19.71 HUNT\_COIN | 31.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.43 16.42 HUNT\_COIN | 28.7% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.96 3.08 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× | | [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) | 60.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 72 | 75.0 | 0.96× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=698) [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $10.43 16.42 HUNT\_COIN 5.10x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $2.04 3.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.04 | 88.86% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% restricted 4.5% Classified 5.0% #4B69FF 10.0% #8847ff 20.0% milspec 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt