--- title: "1% Marble case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Marble ($4.76) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.72% over 1,034 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [1% Marble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 1% Marble A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=all) Price · $4.76 · 7.5 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.97% · EV $4.14 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.72% · 1,034 openings, odds method Variance · 82.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 222 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 164 openings · below min 7 days · 827 openings · below min 30 days · 1,034 openings · below min since tracking started · 1,034 openings · below min -0.5% 78.3% 157.0% **Small sample.** 1,034 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=24h) | 164 | 17.33% ±138.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=7d) | 827 | 68.48% ±61.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70) | 1,034 | 90.72% ±55.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/70?window=all) | 1,034 | 90.72% ±55.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,034 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $651 1,025 HUNT\_COIN | 4.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $492 775 HUNT\_COIN | 16.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $372 585 HUNT\_COIN | 22.4% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [Sticker \| Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) | 99.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN | 19.7% | 1,023 | 1023.7 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $651 1,025 HUNT\_COIN 136.7x 2026-11-04 05:13 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $492 775 HUNT\_COIN 103.4x 2026-11-08 22:15 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $372 585 HUNT\_COIN 78.05x 2026-11-08 21:16 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $372 585 HUNT\_COIN 78.05x 2026-11-05 04:18 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $372 585 HUNT\_COIN 78.05x 2026-11-04 12:55 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $372 585 HUNT\_COIN 78.05x 2026-11-03 22:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=70) [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.76 | 86.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% high 99.0% best hit $651 (136.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.97 on average: an expected loss of $13.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt