--- title: "5% Budget or Baller case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Budget or Baller ($8.48) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 9 items with odds, observed 108.68% over 168 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Budget or Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Budget or Baller A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=all) Price · $8.48 · 13.36 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $7.41 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.68% · 168 openings, odds method Variance · 24.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 132 openings · below min 30 days · 168 openings · below min since tracking started · 168 openings · below min 25.5% 109.7% 194.0% **Small sample.** 168 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=7d) | 132 | 109.88% ±83.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704) | 168 | 108.68% ±74.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/704?window=all) | 168 | 108.68% ±74.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $777 1,224 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $430 678 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $242 381 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 16.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $146 229 HUNT\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $96.95 153 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $76.11 120 HUNT\_COIN | 10.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $69.30 109 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.98× | | [Sticker \| Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) | 95.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 155 | 159.6 | 0.97× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=704) [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $96.95 153 HUNT\_COIN 11.43x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $242 381 HUNT\_COIN 28.48x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $8.48 13.36 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.48 | 87.38% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% rare 0.2% covert 2.1% Restricted 0.6% extraordinary 1.0% restricted 1.0% Rare 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt