--- title: "Hot Shot 5% case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hot Shot 5% ($13.15) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 19 items with odds, observed 97.02% over 250 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Hot Shot 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Hot Shot 5% A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=all) Price · $13.15 · 20.71 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $11.49 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.02% · 250 openings, odds method Variance · 64.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 244 openings · below min 30 days · 250 openings · below min since tracking started · 250 openings · below min -0.5% 320.8% 642.0% **Small sample.** 250 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=24h) | 6 | 0.19% ±641.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=7d) | 244 | 99.40% ±100.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705) | 250 | 97.02% ±99.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/705?window=all) | 250 | 97.02% ±99.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 250 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $5,401 8,507 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $866 1,365 HUNT\_COIN | 26.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 364 | $300 472 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $278 437 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $225 354 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $183 289 HUNT\_COIN | 4.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $167 262 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $156 245 HUNT\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $114 179 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $109 171 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $94.51 149 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 4 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $83.82 132 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $77.64 122 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $72.92 115 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $67.92 107 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 95.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 234 | 237.5 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $866 1,365 HUNT\_COIN 65.89x 2026-11-09 16:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=705) [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) Hidden $13.15 20.71 HUNT\_COIN $94.51 149 HUNT\_COIN 7.19x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.15 | 87.39% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.7% Legendary 0.3% classified 0.7% Ancient 0.3% rare 0.3% red 0.6% high 95.0% best hit $866 (65.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt