--- title: "Faded Dreams case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Faded Dreams ($0.47) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.66% from 2 items with odds, observed 5.41% over 88 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708 rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Faded Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Faded Dreams A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=all) Price · $0.47 · 0.74 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.66% · EV $0.41 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 5.41% · 88 openings, odds method Variance · 659.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 88 openings · below min since tracking started · 88 openings · below min -0.5% 434.5% 869.5% **Small sample.** 88 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=7d) | 34 | 5.41% ±863.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708) | 88 | 5.41% ±536.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/708?window=all) | 88 | 5.41% ±536.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $382 601 HUNT\_COIN | 93.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 99.9% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 88 | 87.9 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=708) [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) [Sewi #^](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sewi%20%23%5E) $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $0.47 0.74 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.47 | 86.66% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% high 99.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.66 on average: an expected loss of $13.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt