--- title: "5% Knife Flip case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Knife Flip ($9.05) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 7 items with odds, observed 64.85% over 77 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Knife Flip](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Knife Flip A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=all) Price · $9.05 · 14.25 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $7.91 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.85% · 77 openings, odds method Variance · 16.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 77 openings · below min 30 days · 77 openings · below min since tracking started · 77 openings · below min -0.5% 201.5% 403.5% **Small sample.** 77 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=24h) | 4 | 8.98% ±394.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=7d) | 77 | 64.85% ±89.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714) | 77 | 64.85% ±89.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/714?window=all) | 77 | 64.85% ±89.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $392 618 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $303 478 HUNT\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $243 383 HUNT\_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $161 254 HUNT\_COIN | 20.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 15.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 95.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 74 | 73.1 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=714) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.05 14.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-09 16:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.05 | 87.40% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.2% covert knife 1.3% #ffd700 0.5% High Grade 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt