--- title: "blue dreams case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "blue dreams ($219.49) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 6 items with odds, observed 84.98% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [blue dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · blue dreams A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=all) Price · $219.49 · 346 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $191.78 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.98% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 103.5% 207.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=7d) | 12 | 84.98% ±122.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718) | 12 | 84.98% ±122.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/718?window=all) | 12 | 84.98% ±122.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,152 6,540 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN | 36.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 10.0% | $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN | 44.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) | 83.4% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN 6.33x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN 3.87x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=718) [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN 6.33x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) [AlphaKavlak](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/AlphaKavlak) $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $219 346 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $219 | 87.38% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.6% covert knife 5.0% sunny 10.0% other 83.4% best hit $1,389 (6.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt