--- title: "3% Golden Goose case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "3% Golden Goose ($8.43) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.36% from 12 items with odds, observed 73.29% over 609 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [3% Golden Goose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 3% Golden Goose A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=all) Price · $8.43 · 13.28 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.36% · EV $7.37 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.29% · 609 openings, odds method Variance · 83.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 357 openings · below min 30 days · 73.29% ±72.75 609 openings since tracking started · 73.29% ±72.75 609 openings -0.5% 371.0% 742.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=24h) | 6 | 9.04% ±732.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=7d) | 357 | 56.10% ±95.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722) | 609 | 73.29% ±72.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/722?window=all) | 609 | 73.29% ±72.7 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 609 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,028 6,344 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,264 1,991 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $546 860 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $339 534 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.46× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $289 455 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $266 419 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $214 336 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $159 251 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.55× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $88.90 140 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× | | [Sticker \| Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) | 97.0% | $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 592 | 590.7 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=722) [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $8.43 13.28 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.43 | 87.36% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.3% classified 0.7% common 97.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.36 on average: an expected loss of $12.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt