--- title: "10% Profit case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Profit ($0.23) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 89.81% over 1,985 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Profit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Profit A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=all) Price · $0.23 · 0.37 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 85.98% · EV $0.20 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.81% · 1,985 openings, odds method Variance · 19.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.01% ±35.74 587 openings 7 days · 92.92% ±21.32 1,649 openings 30 days · 89.81% ±19.43 1,985 openings since tracking started · 89.81% ±19.43 1,985 openings 57.5% 94.0% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=24h) | 587 | 94.01% ±35.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=7d) | 1,649 | 92.92% ±21.3 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725) | 1,985 | 89.81% ±19.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/725?window=all) | 1,985 | 89.81% ±19.4 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,985 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.51× | | [M4A4 \| Tornado (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $6.41 10.09 HUNT\_COIN | 15.9% | 6 | 9.9 | 0.60× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.12 6.49 HUNT\_COIN | 20.4% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2.48 3.9 HUNT\_COIN | 36.8% | 66 | 59.5 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN | 9.7% | 103 | 107.2 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 773 | 794.0 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 1,013 | 992.5 | 1.02× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN 99.97x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN 99.97x 2026-11-09 04:48 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN 99.97x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=725) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) [TerorizezBabe.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/TerorizezBabe.) $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.23 | 85.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% industrial 0.5% classified 1.0% milspec 3.0% mil spec 5.4% other 90.0% best hit $23.49 (99.97x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.98 on average: an expected loss of $14.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt