---
title: "20% BIG PROFIT case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "20% BIG PROFIT ($0.52) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.57% over 873 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% BIG PROFIT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% BIG PROFIT

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=all)

Price · $0.52 · 0.82 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 87.00% · EV $0.45 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.57% · 873 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86 openings · below min

7 days · 71.68% ±27.28 741 openings

30 days · 73.57% ±25.13 873 openings

since tracking started · 73.57% ±25.13 873 openings

1.0% 81.8% 162.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=24h) | 86 | 81.78% ±80.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=7d) | 741 | 71.68% ±27.3 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729) | 873 | 73.57% ±25.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/729?window=all) | 873 | 73.57% ±25.1 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 873 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000,000 | $12.8K 20,125 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $326 514 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000,000 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $136 214 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $106 167 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 19,608 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.66 65.62 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $23.49 37 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $11.32 17.83 HUNT\_COIN | 17.5% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $4.69 7.38 HUNT\_COIN | 15.5% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.99 4.71 HUNT\_COIN | 13.2% | 22 | 17.5 | 1.26× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.77 2.78 HUNT\_COIN | 19.5% | 41 | 43.7 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN | 15.3% | 93 | 87.3 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN | 14.6% | 183 | 174.6 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) | 60.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 523 | 530.5 | 0.99× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=729)

[Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) [TerorizezBabe.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/TerorizezBabe.) $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $1.77 2.78 HUNT\_COIN 3.39x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $1.77 2.78 HUNT\_COIN 3.39x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN 1.33x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.52 0.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.33 0.52 HUNT\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.52 | 87.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.7% uncommon 1.5% Rare 2.0% Uncommon 5.0% Mil Spec 10.0% restricted 20.0% other 60.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.00 on average: an expected loss of $13.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt