--- title: "3% Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "3% Dream ($2.41) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.77% from 6 items with odds, observed 82.79% over 2,491 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [3% Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 3% Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=all) Price · $2.41 · 3.8 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.77% · EV $2.09 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.79% · 2,491 openings, odds method Variance · 52.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 172 openings · below min 7 days · 78.49% ±29.77 2,284 openings 30 days · 82.79% ±28.51 2,491 openings since tracking started · 82.79% ±28.51 2,491 openings -0.5% 79.0% 158.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=24h) | 172 | 49.26% ±108.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=7d) | 2,284 | 78.49% ±29.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73) | 2,491 | 82.79% ±28.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/73?window=all) | 2,491 | 82.79% ±28.5 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,491 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $338 532 HUNT\_COIN | 16.1% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $247 389 HUNT\_COIN | 23.6% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $135 213 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $48.33 76.12 HUNT\_COIN | 17.3% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $34.50 54.34 HUNT\_COIN | 28.8% | 39 | 43.6 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) | 97.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 2,423 | 2416.3 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 139.9x 2026-11-09 10:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 139.9x 2026-11-08 22:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 139.9x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 139.9x 2026-11-07 11:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $338 532 HUNT\_COIN 139.9x 2026-11-04 10:38 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $247 389 HUNT\_COIN 102.5x 2026-11-08 22:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $135 213 HUNT\_COIN 56.10x 2026-11-08 23:20 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $135 213 HUNT\_COIN 56.10x 2026-11-08 22:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $135 213 HUNT\_COIN 56.10x 2026-11-08 21:55 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $135 213 HUNT\_COIN 56.10x 2026-11-08 21:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=73) [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Apeks sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks) Hidden $2.41 3.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.41 | 86.77% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% covert 2.9% other 97.0% best hit $338 (139.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.77 on average: an expected loss of $13.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt