--- title: "case hardened dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "case hardened dream ($2.88) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.41% from 4 items with odds, observed 17.18% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731 rendered: 2026-11-12T00:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [case hardened dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · case hardened dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=all) Price · $2.88 · 4.54 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.41% · EV $2.52 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 17.18% · 32 openings, sample method Variance · 169.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 16.5% 17.3% 18.0% **Small sample.** 32 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=7d) | 12 | 17.18% ±0.00 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731) | 32 | 17.18% ±0.00 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/731?window=all) | 32 | 17.18% ±0.00 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN | 32.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $715 1,127 HUNT\_COIN | 28.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $505 795 HUNT\_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 99.7% | $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN | 19.6% | 32 | 31.9 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=731) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $2.88 4.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.50 0.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $2.88 | 87.41% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.1% covert knife 0.1% covert 0.1% violet 99.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.41 on average: an expected loss of $12.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt